Churn confidence thresholds with Jev
Usage curves belong to your warehouse. Jev reads why someone is unhappy (cancel language, effort, save-offer fit). Code blends the two.
This unofficial page is the confidence thresholds slice of the churn risk decisions pack. Intent: apply the Jev (TypeSafe System One) decision model to churn risk decisions confidence thresholds. Primary search language: Churn Jev confidence thresholds. Confirm patterns on docs.typesafe.ai. This site does not sell, issue, or proxy TypeSafe keys. Use a credential you already have from the console or a documented gateway.
Independent angle (cover ≠ clone): Evidence-first risk bands from tickets and language, with arithmetic in code — not a black-box churn-model clone or rival recipe IA.
Churn use-case context
Thresholds turn churn risk decisions answers into act / review / abstain. They are product policy, not a hyperparameter TypeSafe ships. Official 0.5 / 0.9 sketches are illustrations. This slice also carries the false-reject discussion: over-gating churn risk decisions hides calibration.
Hub: Use cases. Compare, when the other tool is the real job: churn models.
Confidence Thresholds inputs
You need (1) pinned answers on a frozen contract and (2) labels for cancel-intent gold and whether the chosen save play was appropriate. State shape:
{
"account": { "id": "A-12", "plan": "pro", "seats": 40 },
"usage": { "wow_delta_bucket": "down_gt_30", "last_active_days_bucket": "21_plus" },
"tickets": { "latest": "We are moving to a competitor unless SSO ships." },
"nps": { "comment": "Setup took weeks." }
}
Decision signals and actions
| Axis | Where it lives | Churn use |
|---|---|---|
choice / score / noul |
answer payload | What to do with the account language + pre-aggregated usage |
confidence |
Choice & Score only | Whether to trust the argmax |
| Distance from 0.5 | Noul | Whether cancel_intent is decided |
FLOORS = {
"csm_nudge": 0.55, # illustrations — replace
"exec_outreach_or_discount": 0.88,
}
NOUL_TAU = 0.75 # for cancel_intent
def allow(ans, action):
return ans.confidence >= FLOORS[action]
Do not treat a Noul of 0.5 as a “medium” churn risk decisions score — it means yes and no are equally likely. Conjunctions stay in your code.
Guardrails and escalation
TypeSafe’s confidence-gated examples use a lower bar for recoverable reads than for irreversible actions. Those numbers are illustrations. For churn risk decisions, treat exec_outreach_or_discount as the high bar (exec outreach or a commercial concession). Tune on labels — see offline evaluation.
Band around 0.5 on cancel_intent always reviews. Do not copy 0.75 onto Choice confidence.
Evaluation and rollout notes
- Precision of exec_save pages
- Missed competitor-threat language
- Do not attribute revenue save to Jev without a designed experiment
Fit loop: pin jev-1.13.0 → replay → plot error vs confidence → pick floors where auto-act error ≤ your SLA. Pin jev-1.13.0 (the versioned id) after you fit thresholds. jev-latest and the marketing line jev-1.13 can move. Log the response model. TypeSafe’s published list price for jev-1.13 is $0.042 per million input tokens (vendor claim — confirm on the models page); output tokens are free on that same page. Unused distractors still bill as input.
Official Python and JavaScript SDKs read TYPESAFE_API_KEY and retry documented 429/529. This site does not sell, issue, or proxy TypeSafe keys. Use a credential you already have from the console or a documented gateway.
Pack map
| Slice | Page |
|---|---|
| Graph and primitives | decision workflow |
What may enter state |
input contracts |
| What to gather first | evidence collection |
| Atomic rules | policy checks |
| Act / review / abstain | you are here |
| Reviewer payload | human handoff |
| What to persist | audit trail |
| How it breaks | failure modes |
| Labeled replay | evaluation |
| Shadow → canary | production rollout |
FAQ
Should exec_outreach_or_discount use 0.9 everywhere? No. Over-gating hides calibration and dumps the queue on humans. Fit per action.
Can I reuse a Noul τ as Choice confidence? No. Jaggedness: they are not interchangeable. See confidence.
Where is the rest of the Churn pack? Start with Churn decision workflow and Churn human handoff. Cluster hub: Use cases.
Can Jev replace our churn model? No. Keep warehouse risk; use Jev on unstructured complaints and save-offer fit.
TypeSafe mentions churn in the use-case map — is that a product? It is an example of more questions on ticket state, not a separate TypeSafe churn API.
What this page does not claim
- No causal save-rate numbers.
- Not a billing system.
- Not official TypeSafe.
- Official TypeSafe status, or that jev.pro issues API keys.
- That a schema-constrained answer is automatically factually correct.
Disclaimer
This is an independent unofficial site and is not affiliated with TypeSafe AI; official documentation is available at https://docs.typesafe.ai.
Primary documentation: https://docs.typesafe.ai. Hub: Use cases.
Sources
Public TypeSafe or adjacent documentation only. No private claims.